‘Economy seems to have strong momentum’

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Economist Mark Vitner said those who were nervous about the November jobs report, anticipating a jobs gain of about 180,000, were pleasantly surprised Friday morning. In a Dec. 6 news release, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5%. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment rose in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike.

Vitner, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities was the keynote speaker at the Dec. 6 Economic Development Council Quarterly Breakfast at the Renaissance, St. Augustine Resort in World Golf Village. The strong jobs report was the starting point for Vitner’s topic, “Economics, A Look Ahead.”

“There are a lot of positive things going on in our economy right now,” he told the filled meeting room.

The national unemployment rate in October was 3.6% nationwide and 3.2% in Florida. The St. Johns County unemployment rate in September was lower than both at 2.5%. Vitner said employment growth remains very strong.

He said recession fears topped out in August. It’s been more than 10 years since the last recession the longest span ever in the U.S. He said in the last recession everything was tied to housing. Consumers went from too optimistic to too cautious and, in 2007, the Fed raised interest rates higher than people expected. There were other factors related to real estate that contributed to the last recession, as well.

“It’s kind of hard for me to see a recession… even kind of far out there,” he said. “Barring unforeseen events like a war.”

He said the Fed has set a very high bar to raise interest rates, and we may see one more rate cut in March. Vitner anticipates interest rates will remain relatively low.

“Our (U.S.) economy is the strongest advanced economy in the world,” he said.

He also reported households are in strong economic shape today, and that includes gaining strength in the bottom 40% of the earning spectrum.

“That’s important because those folks spend more of their paycheck,” Vitner said. “I think the holidays will really surprise people on the upside,” indicating consumer confidence is strong.

Local dignitaries seated at the president’s table included State Representative Cyndi Stevenson, District 2 Commissioner Jeb Smith, District 5 Commissioner Henry Dean, Police Chief Barry Fox, Airport Authority Board Member Suzanne Green and Property Appraiser Eddie Creamer. St. Johns County Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Isabelle Renault made opening remarks and announcements. EDC Chairman Mike Koppenhafer served as emcee. Adam Gregory delivered the invocation and Todd Neville led the Pledge of Allegiance. Victor Raymos presented sponsor remarks and introduced keynote speaker, Mark Vitner.

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